JNJ Johnson & Johnson Stock Outlook 2026: Post-Kenvue, Talc, and Medtech Growth

Johnson & Johnson entered 2026 as a fundamentally different company than it was three years ago. The consumer health spin-off that created Kenvue left J&J with a leaner, higher-margin business anchored in pharmaceuticals and medical devices. That transformation is both the bull case and the risk — without the steady cash flow of Band-Aid and Tylenol, J&J’s earnings are more exposed to pipeline success and litigation outcomes than ever before.

This analysis works through the post-Kenvue financials, the MedTech growth story, the STELARA biosimilar threat, the talc litigation status, and how U.S. investors should think about JNJ versus XLV exposure.

FY2024 Financial Snapshot

Johnson & Johnson’s fiscal year runs January–December. FY2024 results:

Metric	FY2024 Value
Revenue	$88.82 billion
Net Income	$14.07 billion
Diluted EPS	$5.84
Free Cash Flow	$19.84 billion
Annual Dividend Per Share	$5.36

Source: stockanalysis.com, accessed May 2026. Current stock price: $224.62 (May 6, 2026). Market cap: approximately $540.7 billion.

Free cash flow of $19.84 billion against net income of $14.07 billion indicates a very high-quality earnings stream — FCF conversion above 100% of net income. This cash generation funds both the dividend and aggressive pipeline investment through partnerships and bolt-on acquisitions.

The Two-Segment Business: Innovative Medicine vs. MedTech

Post-Kenvue, J&J operates two segments:

Segment	Key Products / Areas
Innovative Medicine (Pharma)	DARZALEX, TREMFYA, STELARA, CARVYKTI, ERLEADA
MedTech	DePuy Synthes (ortho), cardiovascular (Shockwave), eye health, surgical platforms

Innovative Medicine is the revenue heavyweight, but faces a critical challenge: STELARA (ustekinumab, used in psoriasis and Crohn’s disease) has lost patent exclusivity in many markets. CVS Health announced in early May 2026 that it would prefer lower-cost, interchangeable STELARA biosimilars over the branded product — a signal of accelerating formulary erosion. STELARA generated billions in annual revenue at peak; the biosimilar transition will be a multi-year earnings headwind.

Offsetting that headwind: DARZALEX continues to grow in multiple myeloma across frontline and relapsed settings. TREMFYA showed efficacy in perianal fistulizing Crohn’s disease as announced in May 2026, positioning it as “the first and only IL-23 inhibitor” with that indication — a meaningful label expansion into an underserved patient population.

CARVYKTI (ciltacabtagene autoleucel), the CAR-T therapy developed with Legend Biotech, represents J&J’s foray into cell therapy. CAR-T treatments are complex to manufacture and expensive to administer, but they command extraordinary pricing and represent the cutting edge of oncology.

MedTech is the growth story. The $13.1 billion acquisition of Shockwave Medical (intravascular lithotripsy for calcified coronary artery disease) closed in 2024 and significantly expanded J&J’s cardiovascular device capabilities. The OTTAVA robotic surgical system is in pivotal clinical trials — if approved, it enters a market currently dominated by Intuitive Surgical’s da Vinci.

Talc Litigation: Where Does It Stand?

J&J’s legacy talc liability — specifically, claims that its baby powder caused ovarian cancer — has been one of the most watched litigation stories in U.S. corporate law for years.

J&J created a subsidiary, LTL Management, and placed it into bankruptcy to consolidate and cap the talc claims. This “Texas Two-Step” approach was rejected by federal bankruptcy courts on multiple occasions, with courts ruling that LTL did not qualify as a debtor in financial distress. The Supreme Court declined to intervene on the procedural question.

As of mid-2026, J&J continues pursuing a negotiated settlement. The company has not disclosed a specific total reserve, but analyst estimates for ultimate talc liability range widely — from approximately $8–10 billion in an optimistic settlement scenario to $20+ billion in an adverse litigation outcome. The uncertainty is a persistent overhang on the stock.

For long-term investors: the talc liability is real but likely manageable for a company generating nearly $20 billion in annual free cash flow. The key question is how much earnings capacity is consumed in resolution and over what timeline.

Dividend History and Qualified Dividend Status

J&J has increased its dividend for over 62 consecutive years, earning Dividend King status. At $5.36 annually ($1.34 per quarter), the payout at current prices yields 2.38% (source: stockanalysis.com). The next ex-dividend date is May 26, 2026.

The dividend is classified as a qualified dividend under U.S. tax law — taxable at 0%, 15%, or 20% for most investors. Inside a Roth IRA, those dividends compound completely tax-free, which is the optimal placement for a Dividend King like JNJ.

Dividend growth over the past decade has averaged approximately 5–6% annually. At that growth rate, the starting yield on a position built today doubles its yield-on-cost in roughly 12–14 years.

Bull, Base, and Bear Scenarios

Bull scenario: Talc litigation settles in the $8–10 billion range, DARZALEX and TREMFYA pick up STELARA share, OTTAVA robotic system gains FDA approval, and MedTech revenues accelerate. Stock re-rates to $250+.

Base scenario: STELARA biosimilar erosion is offset by pipeline growth, talc settles at $12–15 billion over 5 years, steady 5–7% EPS growth continues. Stock delivers 8–10% total annual return including dividends.

Bear scenario: STELARA erosion is faster than expected, additional pipeline setbacks, and talc liability exceeds $20 billion. EPS growth stalls at 2–3%, stock drifts toward $190–200.

Scenario	Implied EPS Growth	Price Target
Bull	9–12%	$250–$265
Base	5–7%	$230–$245
Bear	1–3%	$190–$205

JNJ vs. XLV: Which Is Right for Your Portfolio?

XLV (Health Care Select Sector SPDR) provides diversified healthcare exposure:

• JNJ is typically a top-3 XLV holding (~8–10% weight)
• Also holds UnitedHealth Group, Eli Lilly, AbbVie, Merck, and Pfizer
• Reduces single-stock talc and patent-cliff risk
• Expense ratio: 0.09%

JNJ direct gives you:

• Purer dividend-king yield and growth history
• Direct exposure to MedTech’s robotic surgery optionality
• Higher conviction bet on management’s litigation navigation
• No fund-level dilution from managed care or biotech volatility

Most healthcare-focused income investors hold JNJ directly alongside XLV or a sector-diversified ETF like VHT (Vanguard Health Care ETF). A barbell approach — JNJ for dividend growth, XLV for sector breadth — is a common portfolio construction.

Account Suitability

Account Type	Fit	Rationale
Roth IRA	Excellent	Qualified dividends compound tax-free; 62-year streak ideal for long-duration
Traditional 401(k)	Good	Dividends taxed as ordinary income at withdrawal, but suitable for growth
Taxable	Good	Qualified dividend tax treatment; talc uncertainty is manageable risk

Post-Kenvue Capital Allocation: What Changed

The Kenvue spin-off in May 2023 was one of the largest consumer health separations in history. The newly independent Kenvue (KVUE) took with it brands including Tylenol, Motrin, Band-Aid, Listerine, Neutrogena, and Aveeno — a consumer portfolio generating approximately $15 billion in annual revenue.

What J&J retained: pharmaceutical and medical device segments generating more than $70 billion in revenue with significantly higher gross margins than the consumer health business.

Why the separation improved J&J’s financial profile:

• Consumer health gross margins are typically 50–60%
• Pharmaceutical gross margins are typically 70–80%
• MedTech gross margins are typically 60–70%

Removing the lower-margin consumer health segment from the P&L mathematically improves J&J’s blended gross margin profile. This margin expansion creates a higher EPS base from a given revenue level — a structural improvement that the post-Kenvue J&J story is built on.

Capital freed by Kenvue: J&J retained approximately $13.2 billion in proceeds from Kenvue’s IPO and subsequent share exchange transactions. This capital has been deployed into the Shockwave Medical acquisition ($13.1 billion) — essentially using Kenvue proceeds to pivot from consumer health to cardiovascular MedTech. That’s a portfolio upgrade in terms of both margin profile and growth trajectory.

Shockwave Medical: The Cardiovascular Bet

The $13.1 billion Shockwave Medical acquisition (closed 2024) is J&J’s most significant recent MedTech investment. Shockwave develops and manufactures intravascular lithotripsy (IVL) devices — coronary and peripheral catheters that use sonic pressure waves to break up calcified blockages in blood vessels.

The clinical unmet need: Severely calcified coronary artery disease (CAD) is increasingly prevalent as the population ages and diabetes/chronic kidney disease — the primary causes of vascular calcification — become more common. Traditional balloon angioplasty and stenting perform poorly in heavily calcified arteries; the hard calcium prevents the balloon from fully dilating, leading to poor outcomes and high restenosis rates.

IVL’s advantage: The Shockwave IVL catheter delivers sonic pulses that crack the calcium before stenting, allowing for better balloon dilation and stent apposition. Clinical data shows dramatically improved outcomes in calcified CAD compared to existing alternatives (rotational atherectomy, cutting balloon).

Revenue trajectory: Shockwave Medical was a high-growth company before the acquisition — growing revenue at 30–40% annually in the two years prior to the deal. The calcification modification market is large and underpenetrated; most hospitals were still relying on rotational atherectomy, which requires specialized operator training and has significant complication risks. IVL’s easier training curve and superior safety profile position it as a platform technology for the calcification market.

J&J’s global commercial infrastructure — its medical device sales force, distribution network, and hospital relationships through DePuy Synthes and vision care — provides a far larger commercial platform than Shockwave could have built independently.

The MedTech Innovation Roadmap

Beyond OTTAVA and Shockwave, J&J’s MedTech segment has a broad innovation pipeline:

Abiomed/heart pump: J&J acquired Abiomed in 2022 for approximately $17 billion. Abiomed’s Impella product line is the world’s smallest heart pump — used in complex coronary interventions and cardiogenic shock to support heart function during high-risk procedures. The Impella is a platform technology with continued iteration (higher-flow Impella 5.5 with SmartAssist algorithm) and expanding indications.

Vision health: J&J’s eye health portfolio (ACUVUE contact lenses, cataract surgery IOLs, surgical equipment) is a large, stable business with premium positioning. The ACUVUE OASYS MAX contact lens launches premium daily disposables in a category where trading up from biweekly or monthly lenses drives margin expansion.

Orthopedic robotics: J&J’s VELYS Robotic-Assisted Solution for knee replacement procedures uses a smaller, table-mounted robot that can be used in any operating room — unlike systems that require dedicated suites. VELYS competes with Stryker’s MAKO and is gaining adoption among orthopedic surgeons who want robotic assistance without the capital commitment of a full robotic suite.

AAA Credit Rating: Why It Matters for Dividend Investors

J&J is one of only two U.S. companies with an AAA credit rating from both S&P and Moody’s — the other being Microsoft. This distinction is not merely a badge; it has practical implications for dividend investors.

An AAA-rated company can borrow money at the lowest possible rates in any credit environment. During the 2020 COVID crisis, J&J could issue debt at rates near 1–2% — essentially free money in real terms. This borrowing capacity creates a dividend backstop: even if FCF temporarily falls (as might happen during a significant litigation settlement), J&J can borrow to maintain its dividend without the credit stress that a lower-rated company would face.

For a company with 62 consecutive years of dividend increases, the AAA rating is part of the moat — it provides financial flexibility that enables the streak to continue through adverse events that would force a lesser-rated company to prioritize debt over dividends.

Income Investor’s Comparison: JNJ vs. ABBV vs. MRK

Healthcare investors often face a choice between three dividend-growth pharmaceutical plays with different characteristics:

Company	Yield	Dividend Growth (5yr avg)	Key Drug Risk	Pipeline Strength
JNJ	2.38%	~5–7%	STELARA biosimilars	DARZALEX, CARVYKTI, OTTAVA
AbbVie (ABBV)	~3.5%	~7–9%	HUMIRA post-patent	Skyrizi, Rinvoq
Merck (MRK)	~3.2%	~5–7%	KEYTRUDA patent cliff (2028)	Various oncology

JNJ’s lower yield reflects its higher P/E premium for the AAA balance sheet and 62-year dividend streak. ABBV offers more current income but has already navigated the HUMIRA patent cliff and is executing the Skyrizi/Rinvoq transition. MRK faces a larger known patent cliff from KEYTRUDA exclusivity ending around 2028.

For Roth IRA purposes, JNJ’s qualified dividend at 2.38% compounds tax-free at a lower starting yield than ABBV, but with greater balance sheet stability and lower financial risk. The selection between these three is largely a question of risk tolerance and yield preference within the healthcare sector.

Related Posts

• LLY Eli Lilly Stock Outlook 2026 — GLP-1 drug leader reshaping pharma
• AMGN Amgen Stock Outlook 2026 — Biotech Dividend Aristocrat comparison
• BMY Bristol-Myers Squibb Stock Outlook 2026 — Parallel oncology-heavy pharma analysis
• MRK Merck Pharmaceutical Stock 2026 — KEYTRUDA dependence vs. pipeline depth
• ELV Elevance Health Stock Outlook 2026 — Managed care vs. pharma in healthcare
• Tax-Efficient Dividend Investing 2026 — Where to hold dividend kings in your portfolio

DARZALEX: The Revenue Bridge

The critical question after the STELARA biosimilar headwind is: what fills the gap?

DARZALEX (daratumumab) is the most compelling answer. Originally approved as a relapsed/refractory multiple myeloma treatment, DARZALEX has steadily expanded into frontline treatment settings through multiple clinical trials. Multiple myeloma is a disease with no cure — patients cycle through lines of therapy — and DARZALEX’s positioning as the standard of care in multiple frontline settings creates a durable, expanding revenue base.

DARZALEX’s global peak sales potential has been revised upward multiple times as label expansions succeeded. Analysts tracking oncology revenue often identify DARZALEX as capable of reaching $15+ billion in annual peak sales, which would make it one of the highest-grossing oncology drugs in history. The drug has not yet been biosimilar-challenged, and its complex biologic manufacturing provides a longer runway before biosimilar entry than a small-molecule drug like STELARA.

The pairing of DARZALEX (growth) against STELARA (decline) is the core financial narrative for J&J’s Innovative Medicine segment through 2027. If DARZALEX grows faster than STELARA declines, segment revenue holds up or grows modestly. If STELARA’s decline is faster than analyst consensus expects — as the CVS Health formulary action in May 2026 suggests — the math becomes more challenging.

CARVYKTI and the Cell Therapy Frontier

CARVYKTI (ciltacabtagene autoleucel) is J&J’s CAR-T (chimeric antigen receptor T-cell) therapy for multiple myeloma, developed in partnership with Legend Biotech. CAR-T therapies represent a fundamentally different treatment modality from traditional drugs — they involve removing a patient’s T cells, engineering them to target cancer cells, and reinfusing them.

The clinical results for CARVYKTI in heavily pre-treated multiple myeloma are among the most impressive ever seen in oncology, with overall response rates above 97% and durable responses in patients who had exhausted other options. The drug carries a price of approximately $500,000 per treatment — a one-time administration rather than ongoing therapy — and is reimbursed by major U.S. payers.

Manufacturing is the bottleneck. Each CARVYKTI dose is individually manufactured from the patient’s own cells, requiring specialized facilities with complex quality control. J&J and Legend Biotech have been expanding manufacturing capacity to reduce wait times for patients — reducing the “vein-to-vein” time is critical for a patient population with rapidly progressing disease.

CARVYKTI’s revenue is growing from a small base but has the potential to be a multi-billion dollar product if manufacturing capacity catches up with demand and label expansions into earlier lines of therapy are approved.

OTTAVA Robotic Surgery: Entering Intuitive Surgical’s Market

The medical robotics market is one of the highest-growth segments in MedTech. Intuitive Surgical’s da Vinci system dominates minimally invasive robotic surgery with an installed base of thousands of systems worldwide and a recurring blade, scope, and instrument replacement revenue stream that generates enormous recurring income.

J&J’s OTTAVA robotic surgical system is in pivotal clinical trials as of May 2026. If approved, it would be the first meaningful competitor to Intuitive Surgical’s da Vinci that is backed by a major medical device company with both the financial resources and hospital relationships to challenge the incumbent.

The commercial opportunity is substantial. Even capturing 15–20% of the robotic surgery market would represent billions in annual revenue. But Intuitive Surgical has a 25-year head start, a deeply entrenched hospital buying committee relationship, and tens of thousands of surgeons trained specifically on da Vinci.

J&J’s competitive advantages: broader device portfolio relationship with hospitals (hospitals already buy DePuy Synthes orthopedic implants from J&J), size enabling competitive pricing on capital equipment, and clinical versatility if OTTAVA is designed for multiple surgical specialties rather than just soft-tissue procedures.

OTTAVA is not a 2026 revenue story — it is a multi-year regulatory and commercial launch story. But it represents MedTech’s most significant growth optionality within J&J’s portfolio.

Talc Litigation: A Quantitative Framework

Rather than treating the talc liability as a binary uncertainty, it helps to frame it with scenarios:

Scenario	Settlement Amount	Timeline	Annual Cash Cost
Optimistic	$8–10 billion	3–4 years	$2–3B/year
Base	$12–15 billion	4–6 years	$2–3B/year
Adverse	$20–25 billion	6–8 years	$3–4B/year
Catastrophic (unlikely)	$30B+	8+ years	$4B+/year

J&J’s annual free cash flow of $19.84 billion means that even the adverse scenario represents approximately 15–20% of annual FCF per year during the resolution period. That is a painful but manageable burden for a company of this scale — particularly if the resolution is phased over multiple years.

The critical risk is not that J&J cannot afford the settlement; it is that the litigation extends for a decade or more, creating persistent uncertainty that keeps the stock’s P/E multiple compressed. Resolution — even at a high number — would likely be viewed as positive by the market because it removes uncertainty.

Johnson & Johnson’s Dividend Growth Model

J&J’s dividend has grown from $0.57 per share annually in 2000 to $5.36 in 2026 — a compound annual growth rate of approximately 8% per year over 26 years. That growth has occurred through recessions, financial crises, patent cliffs, litigation cycles, and a major corporate spin-off.

The sustainability of dividend growth rests on:

1. Free cash flow coverage: $19.84B FCF vs. approximately $10B in annual dividend payments = ~2x coverage ratio
2. Balance sheet capacity: J&J carries one of the few AAA credit ratings among U.S. corporations, enabling access to debt markets at the lowest possible cost
3. Earnings diversity: Post-Kenvue, both Innovative Medicine and MedTech generate strong free cash flows that together fund the dividend

A 5–7% annual dividend increase is consistent with both historical practice and earnings growth expectations. At that rate, the current $5.36 annual dividend grows to approximately $7.50 within seven years — a meaningfully higher income stream for early investors.

The Biosimilar Economy: STELARA as a Case Study

STELARA’s transition to biosimilar competition is a specific case study worth understanding for any pharmaceutical investor.

STELARA (ustekinumab) is an IL-12/23 inhibitor that treats psoriasis, psoriatic arthritis, and inflammatory bowel disease. It was approved in 2009 and grew into one of J&J’s largest revenue contributors at peak sales of approximately $10 billion annually.

When a biologic drug loses patent protection, biosimilar developers (companies like Amgen, Pfizer, Sandoz, and specialty biosimilar makers) can enter the market with highly similar but not identical versions of the drug. Biosimilars typically launch at 15–35% discounts to the branded drug.

Formulary switches — like the CVS Health decision to prefer STELARA biosimilars — accelerate the transition by directing covered patients to the lower-cost alternative through prior authorization and non-coverage of the branded drug. Patients already stable on branded STELARA may continue, but new patients are defaulted to biosimilars.

The pace of STELARA erosion in 2025–2026 will determine how large the DARZALEX bridge needs to be. J&J has anticipated this transition for years and has managed similar biosimilar entrances on prior drugs. The question is execution speed, not surprise.

International Revenue and Emerging Market Exposure

Post-Kenvue, J&J’s international revenue mix includes:

• Europe: Strong MedTech presence (DePuy Synthes orthopedics, surgical platforms), solid pharma penetration through EU market access
• Asia-Pacific: Growing pharmaceutical markets in Japan, China, and Southeast Asia; MedTech growth driven by hospital capacity expansion
• Latin America: Pharmaceutical and device market growth tracking GDP and healthcare spending

Foreign currency fluctuations affect reported USD results similarly to PG — with roughly half of revenue international, a strengthening dollar reduces reported figures from what the underlying business generates in local currencies.

J&J reports organic growth (constant currency, excluding acquisitions) to provide a cleaner read on underlying performance. Investors should compare organic growth rates rather than reported USD growth when evaluating year-over-year progress.

Competitive Moat Assessment

J&J’s competitive moat in 2026 is a genuine multi-layer defense:

Pharma moat: Multi-decade drug development expertise, particularly in oncology and immunology. The relationships with key opinion leaders, clinical trial investigators, and payer medical directors are not replicable quickly. DARZALEX’s position as standard of care is maintained through ongoing investigator-sponsored studies and label expansion efforts.

MedTech moat: DePuy Synthes orthopedic implants are embedded in surgical training programs globally. Surgeons learn on DePuy instruments in residency; they tend to prefer them in practice. The switching cost from one orthopedic implant platform to another is non-trivial for both the hospital and the surgeon.

Balance sheet moat: AAA credit rating and nearly $20 billion in annual FCF provide a financial flexibility that smaller competitors cannot match. When J&J wants to acquire technology (like Shockwave Medical at $13.1 billion), it can.

Managing J&J’s Portfolio Complexity

Owning JNJ in 2026 means accepting complexity:

• A pharma business navigating a major revenue transition from STELARA to next-generation drugs
• A MedTech business integrating a $13.1 billion acquisition and preparing to launch a robotic surgical platform
• An ongoing litigation overhang with uncertain but bounded downside
• A dividend that has been raised 62 consecutive years through all of the above

That complexity is not unusual for a company of J&J’s age and scope. The track record of navigating complexity — and continuing to pay and raise dividends through it — is perhaps the most compelling argument for patient, long-term holders.

How to Monitor the JNJ Thesis Throughout 2026

Investors holding JNJ need a clear framework for tracking whether the investment thesis is on track. The following metrics, reported quarterly, are the most important leading indicators:

STELARA revenue trajectory: Watch the quarterly Innovative Medicine segment revenue. Management provides brand-level detail on major products. STELARA revenue declining faster than 20–25% quarter-over-quarter would signal more aggressive biosimilar formulary adoption than modeled.

DARZALEX growth rate: If DARZALEX maintains 15–20%+ quarterly organic growth, it is on track to compensate for STELARA erosion within 2–3 years. A deceleration below 10% would extend the revenue transition timeline.

MedTech organic growth: Post-Shockwave integration, MedTech organic growth should be tracking 6–8% annually. Below that range would suggest integration friction or cardiovascular device market pressure.

Talc settlement updates: Any announcement of a specific settlement framework — dollar amount, timeline, structure — would be a significant positive for the stock by removing the uncertainty overhang. Watch for press releases and SEC filings regarding settlement discussions.

OTTAVA regulatory milestones: Pivotal clinical study completion, FDA submission, and advisory committee scheduling are the sequential milestones before potential approval. Any of these milestones would represent meaningful pipeline derisking.

The ESG Investor’s View on JNJ

J&J scores well across multiple ESG dimensions, which matters for investors in ESG-screened funds or those managing against ESG guidelines:

Governance: AAA credit rating, long-tenured board with independent leadership, transparent proxy disclosures, and a compensation structure tied to long-term operating metrics.

Social: Healthcare access programs, medical device donation initiatives, vaccine manufacturing commitment. The talc litigation represents a governance/social negative that partially offsets the positive record.

Environmental: J&J has made net-zero 2045 commitments with interim targets, renewable energy procurement (100% renewable electricity in operations), and packaging reduction initiatives across the consumer health heritage (now in Kenvue, but the commitments transferred).

For ESG-focused investors, JNJ is generally included in healthcare sector ESG products because its overall ESG profile exceeds most healthcare sector peers, with the talc litigation being the primary controversy-related concern.

The Bottom Line

Johnson & Johnson in 2026 is a high-quality franchise undergoing a pivotal transition. The Kenvue separation improved the margin profile and sharpened strategic focus. The STELARA biosimilar headwind is real and will pressure 2025–2026 pharma segment growth. The talc litigation overhang won’t disappear quickly, but J&J’s free cash flow capacity — $19.84 billion annually — gives management significant room to fund resolution while maintaining the dividend and investing in pipeline growth.

At $224.62 and 26x trailing earnings, the market assigns a meaningful premium for the post-Kenvue pure-play profile. Whether that premium is warranted depends on how quickly DARZALEX, TREMFYA, CARVYKTI, and OTTAVA replace STELARA’s contribution.

The 62-year dividend growth record is the anchor that makes JNJ worth holding through the transition. For Roth IRA investors with a 15–20 year horizon, the combination of qualified dividends compounding tax-free and J&J’s proven ability to navigate business cycles makes this a portfolio staple rather than a trading position.

Watch Q2 2026 earnings for updated STELARA erosion guidance, DARZALEX quarterly growth confirmation, and any talc settlement progress. Those three data points will tell you whether the base case is intact.