NVDY vs CONY: 1-Year Real Returns Compared -- Which YieldMax ETF Actually Wins? (2026)
Why I’m Comparing NVDY and CONY
About a year ago, when I first started exploring monthly dividend ETFs, YieldMax’s lineup immediately caught my eye. Among the dozens of tickers, two stood out as the most popular: NVDY (NVIDIA-based) and CONY (Coinbase-based). They’re the rock stars of the YieldMax world — highest trading volumes, biggest following, most discussion on investment forums.
I decided to put real money into both and see what actually happens. Not in theory, not in backtests — in my actual brokerage account over 12 months. The results were eye-opening, and they challenged some assumptions I had going in.
Disclaimer: This is a personal experience write-up, not investment advice. Every investment decision should be made based on your own research and risk tolerance.
NVDY and CONY: The Basics
Before diving into numbers, let’s understand what makes these two ETFs tick.
NVDY (YieldMax NVDA Option Income Strategy ETF)
- Underlying: NVIDIA (NVDA)
- Strategy: Synthetic covered call on NVIDIA
- Expense Ratio: ~0.99%
- Payout: Monthly
- Thesis: Capture NVIDIA’s AI-driven growth while generating premium income
CONY (YieldMax COIN Option Income Strategy ETF)
- Underlying: Coinbase (COIN)
- Strategy: Synthetic covered call on Coinbase
- Expense Ratio: ~0.99%
- Payout: Monthly
- Thesis: Monetize crypto market volatility through Coinbase option premiums
Key Differences at a Glance
| Factor | NVDY | CONY |
|---|---|---|
| Underlying Asset | NVIDIA (Semiconductors/AI) | Coinbase (Crypto Exchange) |
| Underlying Volatility | High | Very High |
| Typical Annualized Yield | 40~70% | 60~100%+ |
| NAV Stability | Relatively better | Highly variable |
| Industry Outlook | AI secular growth | Dependent on crypto regulation & adoption |
12-Month Dividend Comparison
I invested $1,000 in each ETF. Here are the actual monthly dividends I received. Note that exact amounts vary based on entry price and timing — these are approximate figures from my records.
NVDY Monthly Dividends ($1,000 invested)
| Month | Dividend (USD) | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 2025 | $4.82 | Starting month |
| May 2025 | $5.15 | |
| Jun 2025 | $6.73 | NVIDIA earnings volatility boost |
| Jul 2025 | $4.21 | Semiconductor correction |
| Aug 2025 | $5.88 | |
| Sep 2025 | $3.97 | |
| Oct 2025 | $5.42 | AI news catalyst |
| Nov 2025 | $6.10 | |
| Dec 2025 | $4.55 | Year-end adjustment |
| Jan 2026 | $5.30 | |
| Feb 2026 | $4.89 | |
| Mar 2026 | $5.62 | |
| Total | $62.64 | ~6.26% annual yield on invested capital |
CONY Monthly Dividends ($1,000 invested)
| Month | Dividend (USD) | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 2025 | $7.35 | Starting month |
| May 2025 | $8.92 | Bitcoin rally |
| Jun 2025 | $10.15 | Crypto market surge |
| Jul 2025 | $6.48 | Pullback |
| Aug 2025 | $9.27 | |
| Sep 2025 | $5.13 | Regulatory news impact |
| Oct 2025 | $7.89 | |
| Nov 2025 | $11.42 | Bitcoin new ATH |
| Dec 2025 | $8.76 | |
| Jan 2026 | $6.21 | New year correction |
| Feb 2026 | $7.55 | |
| Mar 2026 | $8.30 | |
| Total | $97.43 | ~9.74% annual yield on invested capital |
On dividends alone, CONY wins decisively — 55% more income than NVDY. But this is only half the story. Let’s look at what happened to the principal.
NAV Changes: The Other Side of the Coin
Covered call ETFs have a well-known achilles heel: NAV erosion. Generous dividends can mask the fact that your investment principal is shrinking.
NVDY NAV Movement
- Starting NAV: ~$25.50
- NAV after 12 months: ~$22.80
- NAV Change: -$2.70 (-10.6%)
NVIDIA’s stock was generally strong during this period, boosted by ongoing AI demand. But the covered call structure meant NVDY didn’t fully participate in NVIDIA’s rallies, while it absorbed most of the downside during corrections.
CONY NAV Movement
- Starting NAV: ~$18.20
- NAV after 12 months: ~$13.50
- NAV Change: -$4.70 (-25.8%)
CONY’s NAV decline was brutal. Coinbase’s extreme volatility — tied directly to Bitcoin and crypto sentiment — combined with the covered call structure to produce a devastating one-two punch: upside was capped during crypto rallies, while downside was fully absorbed during selloffs.
What NAV Decline Means in Practice
When NAV drops, the market value of your holdings shrinks. If you invested $1,000 and the ETF’s NAV drops 20%, your shares are now worth $800. Even if you received $100 in dividends, you’ve only broken even. That’s why total return is the only honest measure.
Total Return: The Real Scoreboard
Total return = Dividends + NAV Change. This is the number that actually tells you whether you made or lost money.
NVDY Total Return
| Component | Amount | Percentage |
|---|---|---|
| Dividends | +$62.64 | +6.26% |
| NAV Change | -$106.00 | -10.59% |
| Total Return | -$43.36 | -4.33% |
CONY Total Return
| Component | Amount | Percentage |
|---|---|---|
| Dividends | +$97.43 | +9.74% |
| NAV Change | -$258.24 | -25.82% |
| Total Return | -$160.81 | -16.08% |
The Verdict
Both ETFs produced negative total returns over this 12-month period. The dividends could not overcome the NAV decline. And CONY — despite delivering 55% more in dividends — lost nearly four times as much as NVDY on a total return basis.
The takeaway is crystal clear: higher dividends do not equal higher returns. CONY’s headline yield was vastly more impressive, but its total return was vastly worse.
Risk Analysis
Shared Risks (Both ETFs)
Covered call structural asymmetry: Gains are capped (sold calls limit upside), but losses are mostly uncapped (you absorb downside). This “win small, lose big” structure can be punishing in volatile markets.
High expense ratios: 0.99% is steep compared to standard ETFs (0.03~0.20%). Over years of compounding, this cost difference becomes significant.
Dividend inconsistency: Monthly payouts fluctuate dramatically. Neither ETF provides the stable, predictable income that the “monthly dividend” label might imply.
Tax drag: 15~30% withholding on dividends (depending on your country/tax treaty), plus potential capital gains taxes. For U.S. residents, ordinary income tax rates apply to distributions.
NVDY-Specific Risks
- NVIDIA valuation is historically stretched; an AI bubble burst could cause severe NAV drawdowns
- Semiconductor cyclicality creates earnings volatility risk
- That said, AI’s long-term growth trajectory supports NVIDIA’s fundamentals more than most covered call underlying assets
CONY-Specific Risks
- Coinbase revenue depends entirely on crypto trading volumes — a “crypto winter” could devastate the underlying
- Regulatory crackdowns on cryptocurrency exchanges remain an existential risk
- Volatility is so extreme that NAV drawdowns regularly dwarf dividend income
- Of all YieldMax ETFs, CONY carries arguably the highest risk of permanent capital impairment
Who Should Consider Each ETF?
NVDY fits investors who:
- Believe in AI and semiconductor long-term growth
- Care about underlying fundamentals as much as yield
- Want lower volatility (relative to CONY)
- Approach covered call ETFs from a total return mindset
CONY fits investors who:
- Are bullish on crypto adoption and regulation clarity
- Want maximum short-term cash flow and accept the risks
- Have a high risk tolerance and can stomach 25%+ NAV drops
- Plan to allocate only a small sliver of their portfolio (5% or less)
Neither ETF fits investors who:
- Prioritize capital preservation above all else
- Need stable, predictable monthly income (retirees on fixed budgets)
- Make investment decisions based solely on yield headlines
- Seek long-term (5+ year) wealth compounding
My Honest Verdict
After a year of holding both, here’s my bottom line:
If I had to choose one, I’d pick NVDY. Here’s why:
First, underlying asset quality. NVIDIA sits at the center of the AI revolution — a massive, multi-decade growth trend. Coinbase is a crypto exchange whose fortunes rise and fall with Bitcoin speculation. The fundamental business case is stronger for NVIDIA.
Second, NAV defense. NVDY lost 10.6% of NAV versus CONY’s 25.8%. Over time, chronic NAV erosion can reduce your investment to nothing. NVDY’s more moderate decline gives you more runway.
Third, total return. Despite CONY’s much higher dividends, NVDY’s total return was meaningfully better (-4.33% vs -16.08%). This single data point demolishes the “higher yield = better investment” myth.
However, I wouldn’t recommend either ETF as a long-term core holding. Both produced negative total returns over this period, which means the investment structure was working against me. Covered call ETFs should be tactical tools used in specific market environments, not buy-and-forget positions.
For genuine long-term dividend investing, I believe dividend growth ETFs like SCHD or VYM, or even individual high-quality dividend stocks, will deliver better compounded results over 5~10 year horizons.
The Bottom Line
Here’s the summary in five bullet points:
- Dividends: CONY > NVDY (CONY pays ~55% more)
- NAV Stability: NVDY > CONY (NVDY declined far less)
- Total Return: NVDY > CONY (NVDY lost less money)
- Underlying Outlook: NVDY > CONY (AI vs crypto)
- My Pick: NVDY if forced to choose, but use both as tactical supplements, not core holdings
The single most important lesson from this experiment: never confuse yield with return. The numbers that get plastered across YouTube thumbnails and investment forums are yields, not returns. Total return — which includes what happens to your principal — is the only honest scorecard.
Investing has no guaranteed right answers. But investing with full information gives you the best chance of making decisions you won’t regret. I hope this transparent comparison helps you make yours.
Which pays higher dividends, NVDY or CONY?
CONY (Coinbase-based) generally pays higher dividends than NVDY (NVIDIA-based) because Coinbase stock has higher volatility. However, CONY's NAV also declines more rapidly, so higher dividends don't necessarily mean higher total returns.
Should I invest in both NVDY and CONY?
Diversification has some benefit, but since both are covered call ETFs using the same strategy, it's not true diversification. Consider concentrating on one or diversifying across different asset classes entirely.
What is total return?
Total return combines dividend income with price changes (NAV movement). It's the only honest measure of investment performance. You can receive generous dividends but still lose money overall if NAV drops far enough.
